LIVERMORE,
Calif. - Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has signed an agreement
with Siemens Energy Inc. to provide high-resolution atmospheric
modeling capabilities to improve the efficiency of wind farm sites,
turbine design and wind farm operations,
LLNL will provide numerical weather prediction models with resolution
as fine as one-kilometer scale to predict power generated by the wind
so that wind farms can operate more efficiently while providing more
power to hungry grids. Predictive time frames range from an hour ahead
to days ahead of time.
Julie Lundquist |
Under a $2 million, two-year Cooperative Research and Development
Agreement (CRADA), the Livermore team will provide modeling that
combines Livermore's atmospheric turbulence modeling capabilities with
complex databases of topography and sea surface temperature.
Many U.S. wind parks are yielding up to 20% less energy than
predicted because of uncertain forecasts.
This loss of energy can have
complicated financial consequences, such as significant penalties if
operators under-produce their forecasts or no payment for extra power
they generate that is more than what was estimated.
More accurate wind predictions will have a positive effect on wind farm
operators and owners who can know hours or days ahead of time how wind
conditions will affect power generation.
"Knowing the certainty of the forecast can be useful in a day-ahead or
futures market where now there are penalties for under-performance,"
said Julie Lundquist, a Livermore atmospheric scientist who is heading
the project. "At LLNL, we have developed improved methods for
simulating the turbulent properties of the lower atmosphere, which we
think will translate into a significant predictive advantage for wind
energy applications."
The wind forecasting
project started under a Laboratory Directed Research Development
program, a principal source of internal R&D funding at Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory.
Reduce Investment Risks
More accurate
predictions also could reduce the investment risks in wind-powered
projects, could improve the design of tall wind turbines to withstand
the high turbulence environment higher in the atmosphere, and enable
optimal bids on wind farm production.
The Department of Energy (DOE) and Siemens recently signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on wind technology.
"Through
this agreement wind manufacturers, DOE and our laboratories will
enhance wind technology capability to be a competitive energy supply
for America," said Steve Lindenberg, senior adviser for DOE's Renewable
Energy Office. "Siemens growing presence in this country and the
partnership with a national laboratory like Lawrence Livermore helps
provide a new opportunity to deploy a clean source of energy."
Benefits of Wind Power
Wind
offers power with minimal carbon dioxide emission - energy production
without exacerbating global climate change. Wind generation is not
limited by water availability and serves a viable role in energy
portfolios worldwide as economies expand beyond petroleum.
In
addition to providing hourly and daily predictions, Livermore will
explore impacts of global climate change on wind resources 20 years
into the future.
"Estimates of climate change impact can reduce long-term investment risks," Lundquist said.
Wind Forecasts for Turbine Predictions
Lundquist said Siemens would translate LLNL forecasts of wind speed and wind direction at each turbine into power collected.
While the value of forecasting is hard to quantify, several studies
have suggested that more accurate forecasting can render not only more
clean energy but also enhanced profits for industry.
A
study performed by a member of the industry of the effect of 3,300
megawatts (MW) of wind generation in New York state quantified improved
forecasting to be worth $125 million a year to that region. Based on a
conservative application of this figure, Stiesdal estimates that wind
farm owners may be able to increase revenue by as much as 10 percent,
making wind power more profitable and ultimately reducing the cost of
energy.
Siemens Wind Power Investments
Since 2004, Siemens has installed
nearly 1,800 megawatts of power in the United States. The company ranks
third among the largest U.S. turbine manufacturers, according to the
most recent American Wind Energy Association's annual rankings report.
Siemens Energy is the world's leading supplier of a complete spectrum
of products, services and solutions for the generation, transmission
and distribution of power and for the extraction, conversion and
transport of oil and gas.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
With energy being seen as part of national security, national labs are focused on solving US and global energy shortages that can create international tension.
Founded in 1952,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a national security
laboratory, with a mission to ensure national security and apply
science and technology to the important issues of our time. Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory is managed by Lawrence Livermore National
Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear
Security Administration.
